Analysing the economic implications of the Luka Doncic trade for the Dallas Mavericks and the city of Dallas/Fort Worth

The dust now settles from what is, near certain, the biggest trade in sports history. 27-year-old Slovenian guard, Luka Doncic, now ends his first full season wearing the purple and gold of the Los Angeles Lakers as he continues what is already a first-ballot HOF career.

It was clear to industry professionals and fans with more than a casual interest in Doncic’s career, dating back to his teenage years at Real Madrid, that this trade was a failure from the outset, and any deliberation on any other outcome for the Dallas Mavericks can be considered absent-minded.

To suspend away from the superlatives needed to exemplify the ineptitude of this business deal, it’s best to quantify in numbers the lasting effect this will have on the Dallas Mavericks over the next half-century.

Less than two years later, Anthony Davis, the marquess star Doncic was traded for, was traded again for a middling package of picks and players you wouldn’t dare attach to any star-studded transaction for The Slovenian.

After a single season, six-time First-Team All-NBA and guaranteed Hall of Famer Luka Doncic became 34-year-old Khris Middleton, AJ Johnson, Tyus Jones, Marvin Bagley III (a player drafted before Doncic in the 2018 NBA Draft) and two 1^st round picks. A lousy return for a player that was rumoured to command up to ten 1^st round picks and a valuable young player to even entice the Mavericks to the table.

The Business of Losing

The Mavericks are projected to be a middling team for the foreseeable future with only three options available for teams to avoid being trapped in NBA purgatory: Tank in the NBA’s (kind of) socialist system that reward bad teams with the chance to select premier young talent in the draft, use that draft capital to trade for NBA players that give you a better chance of winning, or make available cap space to position yourself to sign the best free agents in the summer.

Unconventional lottery luck in 2025 landed the Mavericks, Duke, and Maine star Cooper Flagg, solace for the franchise’s unfortunate blunder. Having won Rookie of the Year in his first season, Flagg showed flashes of filling the shoes Doncic was promptly forced from. However, Doncic averaged 29 points, 9 rebounds and 9 assists as a 20-year-old in his second season. In fact, since 2020, Doncic has been a top 5 player in the league and an odds-on favourite to win MVP for 4 of the past 6 years.

For Flagg to emulate even a fraction of Doncic’s success, he needs to become great quickly. Though, as currently constructed, the Dallas Mavericks have much of their draft capital traded to rivals, and many assets are hard to trade again due to bloated asking prices.

The 9^th pick the franchise holds in the 2026 draft is the last before a flurry of picks are traded to direct rivals: the Houston Rockets, San Antonio Spurs, and the OKC Thunder. Strengthening rivals is one thing, but leaving no flexibility to build a winning team around Flagg and Kyrie in a difficult division already puts the franchise behind, even setting aside the lousy return they got for AD.

The final and most pertinent issue of free agency coincides with how they’ve treated one of the best players in the world in Luka Doncic. Players of this calibre don’t get traded unless they ask to, they do not get traded without their knowledge. The ramifications of trading Doncic in such a manner hold significant implications, one being the massive financial cost to the Slovenian.

The 27-year-old was in line to sign a supermax contract extension with the Mavericks this summer worth $345 million over five years. In the history of the NBA, such extensions are usually a no-brainer; the supermax was constructed specifically to help teams hold on to franchise pillars against opposing bids.

Doncic was no longer supermax-eligible after being traded away from the team and signed a three-year $165 million extension with the LA Lakers, losing out on $116 million.

The optics of the trade and consequences for Doncic will play out like sirens to any potential free agent viewing the Mavericks as an option, if you trade a generational player on the whim, how safe I’m I?

Missing the Playoffs

During his six-year tenure with the Dallas Mavericks, Luka Doncic had led the team to the playoffs on four occasions. The two years missed being his rookie campaign and a year that included a mid-season trade for Kyrie Irving and a purposeful tank to retains rights to their 2023 draft pick that was traded to the New York Knicks in the Kristaps Porzingis trade but was top 10 protected.

Not reaching the postseason in the NBA is expensive business, Visit Milwaukee created the most comprehensive data currently available. Their analysis found that the NBA Playoffs generated $57.6 million in economic activity for Milwaukee throughout a playoff series that lasted six games, including direct and indirect spending.

The Mavericks currently sit ninth in the standings with chance of reaching the playoffs severely diminished by Kyrie Irving’s ACL injury which has kept him out both seasons and now being led by a talented but rough rookie in Cooper Flagg, rather than statistically the greatest playoff performer of all time.

Having a player of Doncic's calibre be so good so young and deliver two Conference Finals berths by the age of 25 was a luxury teams across competitive sports would die for. With the median age of current hall of famers such as LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Steph Curry are all playing to, coupled with advancements in healthcare for athletes, it wouldn’t be remiss to say having Doncic would guarantee another 10 years of deep playoff runs for the Mavericks and the city of Dallas.

It’s estimated value loss sits in between £3-6 billion over the course of Doncic’s career with the Lakers. The lower bound estimate of £3 billion is optimistic, as from a strict basketball evaluation that is concurrent with the team’s financial success, the Mavericks project to be one of the worst teams in the Western Conference over the next 10 years.

With both this year and the 2025/26 season near null and void due to the ACL injury to Irving, the Mavericks must look to the 2026/27 season for any respite away from mediocrity.

Poor Roster Construction

The issue is Kyrie Irving will be 35 in 2027, in a conference where Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs, OKC Thunder and the Houston Rockets exist as immensely younger and already successful teams.

What adds further salt to injury is the roster construction of the Mavericks, its roster was meticulously designed around the talents of Luka Doncic as the league’s premier offensive engine and table setter. Trades were made to maximise his skillset involving 1st round picks to surround the Slovenian with two-way archetypes like PJ Washington and Klay Thompson that are not as well-versed in the facet of self-creation which are now meld further with the two-way skills of Cooper Flagg, which are premier, but mesh poorly with players of a similar berth and position who need a hub of on-ball creation.

The business of this construction is further exacerbated by who benefits from all the assets former Mavericks General Manager, Nico Harrison traded. There will be a four-year span where what projects to be high value 1st round selections will land at the doors of the Charlotte Hornets in 2027 (protected for selections 1-2), the OKC Thunder in 2028 (unprotected pick swap), the Houston Rockets in 2029 (unprotected pick swap) and the San Antonio Spurs in 2030 (unprotected pick swap).

The Business of Europe

Luka Doncic remains one of the greatest basketball players in the world, alongside an international cohort of Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Victor Wembanyama that are sure to remain in the highest zenith of the game for the next decade.

Doncic’s rise differs from the others as he was the only one who was officially seen as the best player in Europe after winning the MVP in the Euroleague at the age of 18 with Real Madrid. His Slavic heritage, hailing from Slovenia, as well as his success in Spain and recognition from his unparalleled success in the NBA has made Doncic the most admired player in regions of Europe with a population of almost 350 million, according to a survey conducted by sports media company OhBets.

The Mavericks were beneficiaries for years, with fans from this region flying to Dallas to watch Doncic and engage in economic activity with direct and indirect spending. Trading Doncic, especially in the manner they did, will completely remove that tourism and exposure market, which could cost the team and Dallas upwards of £240 million per season.

Understanding of What’s Next

The Mavericks know returning to any sort of form won’t be easy, the field is harder, and you’re no longer led by a golden jacket. However, changes have already occurred: the architect behind this madness, Nico Harrison, was fired and replaced by former Raptors General Manager Masai Ujiri, and coach Jason Kidd was axed. It was pure luck that landed the Mavericks Cooper Flagg; without him, the clouds would’ve wandered over Dallas with an even more callous shroud. The future isn’t bright in Dallas anymore, but it is palatable, with astute moves made behind a competent front office, the Mavericks could hope to glimpse the wonder the boy from Slovenia brought every single night.