Analysing the economic implications of the Luka Doncic trade for the Dallas Mavericks and the city of Dallas/Fort Worth

The dust now settles from what is near certain the biggest trade in sports history. 26-year-old Slovenian guard, Luka Doncic, now wears the purple and gold of the Los Angeles Lakers as he continues what is already a first-ballot HOF career.

It was clear to industry professionals and fans with more than a heightened interest in the sport of basketball that this trade was a failure from the outset, and deliberation on any other outcome for the Dallas Mavericks can be evaluated as absentminded.

To suspend away from the superlatives needed to exemplify the ineptitude of this business deal, its best to quantify in numbers the lasting effect this will have on the Dallas Mavericks over the next half a century.

Missing the Playoffs

During his six-year tenure with the Dallas Mavericks, Luka Doncic had led the team to the playoffs on four occasions. The two years missed being his rookie campaign and a year that included a mid-season trade for Kyrie Irving and a purposeful tank to retains rights to their 2023 draft pick that was traded to the New York Knicks in the Kristaps Porzingis trade but was top 10 protected.

Not reaching the postseason in the NBA is expensive business, Visit Milwaukee created the most comprehensive data currently available. Their analysis found that the NBA Playoffs generated $57.6 million in economic activity for Milwaukee throughout a playoff series that lasted six games, including direct and indirect spending.

The Mavericks currently sit ninth in the standings with chance of reaching the playoffs severely diminished by Kyrie Irving’s ACL injury, and now being led by Anthony Davis, rather than statistically the greatest playoff performer of all time.

Having a player, the calibre of Doncic be so good so young and deliver two finals berths by the age of 25 was a luxury teams across competitive sports would die for. With the median age of current hall of famers such as LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Steph Curry are all playing to, coupled with advancements in healthcare for athletes, it wouldn’t be remiss to say having Doncic would guarantee another 10 years of deep playoff runs for the Mavericks and the city of Dallas.

It’s estimated value loss sits in between £3-6 billion over the course of Doncic’s career with the Lakers. The lower bound estimate of £3 billion is optimistic, as from a strict basketball evaluation that is concurrent with the team’s financial success, the Mavericks project to be one of the worst teams in the Western Conference over the next 10 years.

With both this year and the 2025/26 season near null and void due to the ACL injury to Irving, the Mavericks must look to the 2026/27 season for any respite away from mediocrity.

Poor Roster Construction

The issue is the team’s duo of Antony Davis and Kyrie Irving will be 33 and 34 years old respectively in 2026, in a conference where Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs, OKC Thunder and the Houston Rockets exist as immensely younger and already successful teams (particularly the latter two).

What adds further salt to injury is the roster construction of the Mavericks, its roster was meticulously designed around the talents of Luka Doncic as the league’s premier offensive engine and table setter. Trades were made to maximise his skillset involving 1st round picks to surround the Slovenian with two-way archetypes like PJ Washington and Klay Thompson that are not as well-versed in the facet of self-creation which are now meld further with the two-way skills of Anthony Davis which are premier, but mesh poorly with players of a similar berth and position.

The business of this construction is further exacerbated by who benefits from all the assets Mavericks General Manager, Nico Harrison traded. There will be a four-year span where what projects to be high value 1st round selections will land at the doors of the Charlotte Hornets in 2027 (protected for selections 1-2), the OKC Thunder in 2028 (unprotected pick swap), the Houston Rockets in 2029 (unprotected pick swap) and the San Antonio Spurs in 2030 (unprotected pick swap).

The Business of Europe

Luka Doncic remains one of the greatest basketball players in the world, alongside an international covert of Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Victor Wembanyama that are sure to remain in the highest zenith of the game for the next decade.

Doncic’s rise differs from the others as he was the only one that was officially seen as the best player in Europe after winning MVP in the Euroleague at the age of 18 with Real Madrid. His Slavic heritage hailing from Slovenia as well as his success in Spain and recognition from his unparallel success in the NBA has made Doncic the most admired player in regions of Europe with a population of almost 350 million according to a survey conducted by sports media company OhBets.

The Mavericks were beneficiaries for years with fans from this region flying to Dallas to watch Doncic and engage in economic activity with direct and indirect spending. Trading Doncic especially in the manner they did will complete remove that market of tourism and exposure which could cost the team and Dallas upwards of £240 million per season.

The Business of Losing

As stipulated by reasoning above, the Mavericks are projected to be a middling team for the foreseeable future with only three options available for teams to avoid being trapped in NBA purgatory: Tank in the NBA’s socialist system that reward bad teams with the chance to select premier young talent in the draft, use that draft capital to trade for NBA players that give you a better chance of winning, or make available cap space to position yourself to sign the best free agents in the summer. As currently constructed, the Dallas Mavericks can carry out none of the above options, with much of the draft capital traded to rivals and many assets hard to trade again due to a bloated asking price.

The final and most pertinent issue of free agency coincides with how they’ve treated one of the best players in the world in Luka Doncic. Players off this calibre don’t get traded unless they ask to, they do not get traded without their knowledge. The ramifications of trading Doncic in such a manner hold significant implications, one being the massive financial cost to the Slovenian.

The 26-year-old was in line to sign a supermax contract extension with the Mavericks this summer worth $345 million over five years. In the history of the NBA, such extensions are usually a no-brainer—the supermax was constructed specifically to help teams hold on to franchise pillars against opposing bids.

Now Doncic is no longer supermax eligible as he was traded away from the team and is now only eligible to sign a four-year $229 million extension with the LA Lakers, potentially losing out on $116 million.

The optics of the trade and consequences for Doncic will play out like sirens to any potential free agent viewing the Mavericks as an option, if you trade a generational player on the whim, how safe I’m I?